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| Economy faces record recession |
| Dublin, 13.12.2008 |
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| By Brian O’Mahony
THE Irish economy is facing its worst recession on record next year.
“Cumulatively this will be the second worst recession in the OECD in the last 40 years, after Finland in the early-1990s,” said Dermot O’Leary, chief economist, Goodbody Stockbrokers.
The worsening outlook has forced the Government into a major revision of its economic forecasts.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan was forced to concede yesterday the economy will shrink between 3 and 4% as the global downturn slows consumer spending and constrains exports. This is a sharp climb-down on the figure of 0.75% fall in output forecast by Mr Lenihan just two months ago.
“We have never seen in Ireland a 4% contraction,” said Mr O’Leary who was also forced to change his forecasts for the economy down further for next year and 2010.
In October he said the economy would shrink by 4% in 2009 and fall a further 0.5% in 2010.
His latest analysis suggests those figures will be even higher at 4.2% and 1% respectively.
Earlier this year Ireland was the first eurozone economy to slide into recession, suffering its first downturn since 1983.
The crumbling housing market and a huge loss in consumer confidence have been the key triggers in the sharp turnaround.
Reuters said Mr Lenihan’s outlook for next year was more pessimistic than the average forecast of a 2.8% contraction in 2009 among economists polled by it last month.
Mr Lenihan will now be forced back to the drawing board to reassess his spending options as the worsening outlook will result in a significantly lower tax take than allowed for in his budget.
The prospects of a mini-budget to announce further cuts in spending have increased, analysts believe.
A 35% peak-to-trough decline in investment has led to the sharp downturn in Ireland, Mr O’Leary said. The problem now is that economic weakness is widening to consumer spending and Government finances are stretched.
Unemployment is expected to rise to 10% by end 2009 after a 4.3% low point in 2006. In conjunction with a rebuilding of the savings ratio, consumption is anticipated to contract by 5.5% from peak to trough.
In the case of public spending Mr O’Leary said the budget deficit is now anticipated to rise to 10% of GDP next year, more than treble the EU limit.
Such deficit levels were fast becoming the norm as governments “pump prime” across the world to counter the inadequacy of monetary policy and the severity of the global economic downturn, he said. odkaz na stránku
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![Foto : Map of Irish Counties
Ireland (pronounced /ˈaɪɚlənd/ (help·info), locally [ˈaɾlənd]; Irish: Éire, Ulster Scots: Airlann) is the third largest island in Europe, and the twentieth-largest island in the world. It lies to the north-west of continental Europe and to the west of Great Britain. Politically, the state Ireland, sometimes described as the Republic of Ireland,[2] covers five-sixths of the island, with Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, covering the remainder in the north-east.
The first settlements in Ireland date from 8000 BC. By 200 BC Celtic migration and influence had come to dominate the island. Relatively small scale settlement by both the Vikings and Normans in the Middle Ages gave way to complete English domination by the 1600s. Protestant English rule resulted in the marginalisation of the Catholic majority. A famine in the mid-1800s caused deaths and emigration. Following a war of independence, Ireland was split into: the independent Irish Free State and Northern Ireland, which remains a part of the United Kingdom. The Free State left the Commonwealth to become a Republic in 1949. In 1973 both parts of Ireland joined the European Economic Community. Sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland led to much unrest from the late 1960s until the 1990s, which subsided following a peace deal in 1998.
The population of the island is slightly under 6 million (2006), with 4.2 million in the Republic of Ireland[3] and an estimated almost 1.75 million in Northern Ireland.[4] This is a significant increase from a modern historical low in the 1960s, but still much lower than the peak population of over 8 million in the early 19th century, prior to the Great Famine.[5]
The name Ireland derives from the name of the Celtic goddess Ériu (in modern Irish, Éire) with the addition of the Germanic word land. Most other western European names for Ireland, such as French Irlande, derive from the same source.[6]
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